· Analysis updated 15:46 UTC
Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Vitoria Setubal and 1.72 for UD da Serra, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives UD da Serra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vitoria Setubal home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UD da Serra away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UD da Serra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 35% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Vitoria Setubal and 1.72 for UD da Serra, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
Vitoria Setubal
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcains · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventude Évora · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lajense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Amora · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Serpa · 2-4 (L)
UD da Serra
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Amora · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mortágua · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Nogueirense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Uniao de Pombal · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Alverca II · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.