· Analysis updated 16:33 UTC
Vitória U20 vs Santos U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Vitória U20 and 1.45 for Santos U20, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Santos U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Santos U20 win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vitória U20 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santos U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santos U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 29% / 26% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Vitória U20 and 1.45 for Santos U20, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–111.3%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.6%
- 0–28.2%
Recent form
Vitória U20
- 2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense de Feira U20 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense de Feira U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona BA U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Athletico PR U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona BA U20 · 5-0 (W)
Santos U20
- 2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jabaquara U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cuiabá U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa Santista U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs América-SP U20 · 7-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Brasileiro U20 A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras U20 | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 31 | 44 |
| 2 | Vasco da Gama U20 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 36 |
| 3 | Botafogo U20 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 36 |
| 4 | RB Bragantino U20 | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 34 |
| 5 | Athletico PR U20 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 32 |
| 6 | Santos U20 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro U20 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 29 |
| 8 | Corinthians U20 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 29 |
| 9 | Bahia U20 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 29 |
| 10 | Flamengo U20 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | -1 | 28 |
| 11 | São Paulo U20 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 25 |
| 12 | América Mineiro U20 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | -12 | 25 |
| 13 | Cuiabá U20 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -8 | 21 |
| 14 | Vitória U20 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -11 | 20 |
| 15 | Fluminense U20 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 19 |
| 16 | Grêmio U20 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Juventude U20 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -19 | 18 |
| 18 | Criciuma U20 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -16 | 17 |
| 19 | Avaí U20 | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -19 | 16 |
| 20 | Fortaleza U20 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 8 | -7 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santos U20 win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.