Barradao · Referee Braulio Da Silva Machado, Brazil · Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Vitoria and 1.60 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Vitoria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vitoria home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Paranaense away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
Vitoria
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Gremio · 1-0 (W)
Atletico Paranaense
- 2026-10-12T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense-sc · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico-MG · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Bahia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Coritiba · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-06T23:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 4-0 Atletico Paranaense (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 0-2 Atletico Paranaense (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-04-26T21:30:00.000Z · Vitoria 1-3 Atletico Paranaense (Serie A)
- 2024-11-02T21:30:00.000Z · Vitoria 2-1 Atletico Paranaense (Serie A)
- 2024-06-30T21:30:00.000Z · Vitoria 0-1 Atletico Paranaense (Serie A)
- 2018-11-17T21:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 1-2 Atletico Paranaense (Serie A)
- 2018-07-29T19:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 0-4 Atletico Paranaense (Serie A)
- 2017-10-19T22:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 2-3 Atletico Paranaense (Serie A)
- 2017-06-25T19:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 1-4 Atletico Paranaense (Serie A)
- 2016-11-06T19:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 3-2 Atletico Paranaense (Serie A)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.