Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Vitoria and 1.53 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Vasco DA Gama the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vitoria home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vasco DA Gama away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Vitoria win34%

Draw25%

Vasco DA Gama win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–28.8%
0–18.4%
2–17.9%
1–07.6%

Recent form

Vitoria

2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Gremio · 1-0 (W)

Vasco DA Gama

2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-03T00:30:00.000Z · Vitoria 0-2 Vasco DA Gama (Copa Do Brasil)
2026-08-27T00:30:00.000Z · Vitoria 0-1 Vasco DA Gama (Copa Do Brasil)
2026-07-16T22:30:00.000Z · Vitoria 1-0 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
2025-10-05T19:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 3-4 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
2025-05-10T21:30:00.000Z · Vitoria 2-1 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
2024-09-01T21:30:00.000Z · Vitoria 0-1 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
2024-05-12T21:30:00.000Z · Vitoria 1-2 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
2021-11-11T00:30:00.000Z · Vitoria 3-0 Vasco DA Gama (Serie B)
2021-08-07T22:30:00.000Z · Vitoria 0-1 Vasco DA Gama (Serie B)
2018-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 1-0 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.