· Analysis updated 01:46 UTC
Vittoriosa Stars vs Zurrieq Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Vittoriosa Stars and 0.83 for Zurrieq, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Vittoriosa Stars the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Vittoriosa Stars win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vittoriosa Stars home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zurrieq away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vittoriosa Stars to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 29% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Vittoriosa Stars and 0.83 for Zurrieq, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.7%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–012.6%
- 0–110.4%
- 2–09.8%
Recent form
Vittoriosa Stars
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gudja United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Lucía · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Gudja United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Zebbug Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-01T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Mtarfa · 1-0 (W)
Zurrieq
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gudja United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Santa Lucía · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Hotspurs · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Sirens · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-18T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Mgarr United · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarxien Rainbows | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Fgura United | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Naxxar Lions | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Swieqi United | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Pietà Hotspurs | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Mgarr United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Melita | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Zurrieq | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | St. Andrews | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Victoria Hotspurs | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Santa Lucía | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Vittoriosa Stars | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | Sirens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Attard | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Zebbug Rangers | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Gudja United | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vittoriosa Stars win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.