· Analysis updated 13:18 UTC
Vizela vs Celta de Vigo II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Vizela and 1.90 for Celta de Vigo II, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Celta de Vigo II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Celta de Vigo II win
59.6% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vizela home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Celta de Vigo II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Celta de Vigo II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 18% / 22% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Vizela and 1.90 for Celta de Vigo II, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.0%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.6%
Recent form
Vizela
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bombarralense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto B · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Felgueiras 1932 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Torreense · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Amarante · 0-0 (D)
Celta de Vigo II
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Gijon · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Almeria · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Celta de Vigo II win, at 59.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.