· Analysis updated 15:01 UTC
Vjosa vs Istogu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Vjosa and 0.80 for Istogu, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Vjosa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vjosa win
61.7% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vjosa home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Istogu away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vjosa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 22% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Vjosa and 0.80 for Istogu, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 2–012.1%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–07.3%
Recent form
Vjosa
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vëllaznimi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Istogu · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rilindja 1974 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trepça'89 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferizaj · 0-0 (D)
Istogu
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vjosa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trepça'89 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferizaj · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Liria Prizren · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Prishtina e Re · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Vjosa 1-1 Istogu (Liga E Pare)
- 2026-04-11T13:00:00.000Z · Vjosa 1-4 Istogu (Liga E Pare)
- 2025-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · Vjosa 1-1 Istogu (Liga E Pare)
Liga E Pare table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prishtina e Re | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | Liria Prizren | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 3 | Rilindja 1974 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Trepça'89 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Ferizaj | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 19 |
| 6 | Dinamo Ferizaj | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 7 | Vëllaznimi | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 17 |
| 8 | Suhareka | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 9 | Istogu | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 10 | 2 Korriku | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Vjosa | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 12 | FC Besa Peja | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Trepça Mitrovicë | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 11 |
| 14 | Ramiz Sadiku | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 | KF Lepenci | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Kika | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -9 | 9 |
| 17 | Tefik Canga | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Mitrovica | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vjosa win, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.