Loro Borici Stadium · Analysis updated 16:38 UTC
Vllaznia Shkodër vs AF Elbasani Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Vllaznia Shkodër and 1.26 for AF Elbasani, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives Vllaznia Shkodër the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vllaznia Shkodër home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AF Elbasani away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Vllaznia Shkodër
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tirana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tirana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Teuta Durrës · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Laci · 0-2 (L)
AF Elbasani
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Teuta Durrës · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Skenderbeu Korce · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tirana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 1-1 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2026-05-31T17:00:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 1-2 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2026-04-27T17:00:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 1-3 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2026-02-15T18:30:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 2-1 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2025-12-08T18:00:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 0-1 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2025-10-04T17:00:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 1-0 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2025-04-19T13:30:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 1-1 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2025-02-25T16:00:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 3-3 AF Elbasani (Cup)
- 2025-02-21T16:30:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 1-1 AF Elbasani (Superliga)
- 2025-02-05T16:00:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 0-0 AF Elbasani (Cup)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Tirana | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Laci | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 6 | Skenderbeu Korce | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | AF Elbasani | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Vora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Partizani | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.