Loro Borici Stadium · Analysis updated 09:08 UTC
Vllaznia Shkodër vs Teuta Durrës Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Vllaznia Shkodër and 1.08 for Teuta Durrës, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Vllaznia Shkodër the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vllaznia Shkodër home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Teuta Durrës away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–111.4%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–17.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Double chance — Draw/Away at 1.55 (model 62.1% vs market 58.4%, edge +3.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/AwayValue | 1.55 | 58.4% | 62.1% | 1.61 | +3.7 |
| Match result | Away | 2.75 | 32.7% | 33.4% | 2.99 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 2.40 | 37.4% | 37.9% | 2.64 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 70.8% | 71.3% | 1.40 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.38 | 39.1% | 39.1% | 2.56 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.53 | 60.9% | 60.9% | 1.64 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 29.9% | 28.7% | 3.48 | -1.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.28 | 70.8% | 66.6% | 1.50 | -4.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Vllaznia Shkodër
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tirana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tirana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Teuta Durrës · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Laci · 0-2 (L)
Teuta Durrës
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AF Elbasani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tirana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Skenderbeu Korce · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Kukesi · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 0-2 Teuta Durrës (Superliga)
- 2026-04-12T17:00:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 1-0 Teuta Durrës (Superliga)
- 2026-02-01T15:30:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 1-0 Teuta Durrës (Superliga)
- 2025-11-28T17:00:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 0-1 Teuta Durrës (Superliga)
- 2025-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 1-1 Teuta Durrës (Superliga)
- 2025-03-30T18:00:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 0-0 Teuta Durrës (Superliga)
- 2025-01-31T15:30:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 3-1 Teuta Durrës (Superliga)
- 2024-11-23T16:00:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 2-1 Teuta Durrës (Superliga)
- 2024-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 2-1 Teuta Durrës (Superliga)
- 2024-04-20T16:00:00.000Z · Vllaznia Shkodër 0-0 Teuta Durrës (Superliga)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Tirana | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Laci | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 6 | Skenderbeu Korce | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | AF Elbasani | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Vora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Partizani | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.