Volga Ulyanovsk vs Arsenal Tula Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Volga Ulyanovsk and 1.33 for Arsenal Tula, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Volga Ulyanovsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Volga Ulyanovsk home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal Tula away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Volga Ulyanovsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 26% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Volga Ulyanovsk and 1.33 for Arsenal Tula, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Volga Ulyanovsk win40%

Draw26%

Arsenal Tula win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–112.1%
1–09.1%
2–18.6%
0–18.5%
1–28.0%

Recent form

Volga Ulyanovsk

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Leningradets · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Kostroma · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC UFA · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Volgar Astrakhan · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tula · 3-0 (W)

Arsenal Tula

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KAMAZ · 4-3 (W)
2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC UFA · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Kostroma · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nizhny Novgorod	15	13	1	1	29	40
2	FC Sochi	15	10	2	3	11	32
3	Torpedo Moskva	15	8	4	3	15	28
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	8	3	3	7	27
5	Veles	15	8	3	4	2	27
6	Ural	14	7	4	3	12	25
7	FC UFA	15	5	6	4	3	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	4	8	2	4	20
9	Rotor Volgograd	15	5	4	6	5	19
10	Arsenal Tula	15	5	4	6	-10	19
11	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	5	3	7	-2	18
12	Chelyabinsk	14	4	3	7	-5	15
13	Enisey	15	3	5	7	-14	14
14	KAMAZ	15	3	4	8	-8	13
15	Leningradets	14	3	4	7	-14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	4	0	10	-11	12
17	Ska-khabarovsk	15	2	4	9	-10	10
18	Tekstilshchik	15	2	4	9	-14	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.