Trud Stadium · Analysis updated 04:20 UTC
Volga Ulyanovsk vs Torpedo Moskva Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Volga Ulyanovsk and 1.57 for Torpedo Moskva, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Torpedo Moskva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Torpedo Moskva win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Volga Ulyanovsk home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Torpedo Moskva away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Torpedo Moskva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 25% / 25% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Volga Ulyanovsk and 1.57 for Torpedo Moskva, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–07.7%
Recent form
Volga Ulyanovsk
- 2026-10-25T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Veles · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Ska-khabarovsk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Murom · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rotor Volgograd · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Veles · 2-1 (W)
Torpedo Moskva
- 2026-10-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotor Volgograd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Enisey · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Leningradets · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Zhodino · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs FC UFA · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 40 |
| 2 | FC Sochi | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 32 |
| 3 | Torpedo Moskva | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Ural | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Spartak Kostroma | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 6 | Veles | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | FC UFA | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 8 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -1 | 21 |
| 9 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 10 | Rotor Volgograd | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Arsenal Tula | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 19 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 15 |
| 13 | Enisey | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | Leningradets | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 15 | KAMAZ | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 | FK Neftekhimik | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -11 | 13 |
| 17 | Ska-khabarovsk | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -10 | 10 |
| 18 | Tekstilshchik | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -14 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Torpedo Moskva win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.