Tsentralnyi Stadion · Analysis updated 16:18 UTC
Volgar Astrakhan vs Dinamo Kirov Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.91 expected goals for Volgar Astrakhan and 1.07 for Dinamo Kirov, a combined total of 1.97. That distribution gives Dinamo Kirov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.7% probability
Expected goals
0.91 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Volgar Astrakhan home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Kirov away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Kirov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 30% / 31% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.91 goals for Volgar Astrakhan and 1.07 for Dinamo Kirov, a combined 1.97 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.8%
- 0–013.9%
- 1–113.4%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–27.9%
Recent form
Volgar Astrakhan
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-21T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mashuk-KMV · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Sokol Saratov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaluga · 1-1 (D)
Dinamo Kirov
- 2026-10-18T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Vladivostok · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-14T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Ska-khabarovsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mashuk-KMV · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaluga · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League A - Division A Gold table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodina Moskva II | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 26 |
| 2 | Dinamo Kirov | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 24 |
| 3 | Novosibirsk | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Dinamo Bryansk | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 16 |
| 5 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 7 | Mashuk-KMV | 12 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Volgar Astrakhan | 12 | 1 | 9 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | FK Sokol Saratov | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -9 | 9 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 12 | 0 | 6 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.