· Analysis updated 19:02 UTC
Volgar Astrakhan vs Spartak Nalchik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Volgar Astrakhan and 1.10 for Spartak Nalchik, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Volgar Astrakhan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Volgar Astrakhan win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Volgar Astrakhan home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Nalchik away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Volgar Astrakhan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Volgar Astrakhan and 1.10 for Spartak Nalchik, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.5%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
Volgar Astrakhan
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-21T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mashuk-KMV · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Sokol Saratov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaluga · 1-1 (D)
Spartak Nalchik
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Izberbash · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Chayka 2 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shahter Taganrog · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Astrakhan · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Pobeda · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Volgar Astrakhan win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.