· Analysis updated 22:43 UTC
Volna Nizhegorodskaya vs Ryazan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Volna Nizhegorodskaya and 0.77 for Ryazan, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Volna Nizhegorodskaya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Volna Nizhegorodskaya win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
1.21 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Volna Nizhegorodskaya home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ryazan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Volna Nizhegorodskaya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 30% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.21 goals for Volna Nizhegorodskaya and 0.77 for Ryazan, a combined 1.98 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.6%
- 0–013.7%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.6%
- 2–010.1%
Recent form
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Shumbrat · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Spartak Tambov · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-14T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo St. Petersburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Avangard Kursk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Saturn Ramenskoye · 0-2 (L)
Ryazan
- 2026-10-25T04:00:00.000Z · A vs SKA Khabarovsk II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shumbrat · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Spartak Tambov · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Avangard Kursk · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zenit Penza · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | FK Spartak Tambov | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 53 |
| 3 | Shumbrat | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 4 | Saturn Ramenskoye | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 40 |
| 5 | Ryazan | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 40 |
| 6 | Salyut-Belgorod | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 39 |
| 7 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 8 | Avangard Kursk | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Rodina Moskva III | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 28 |
| 10 | Strogino | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | SKA Khabarovsk II | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -8 | 24 |
| 12 | Zenit Penza | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | -16 | 23 |
| 13 | Orel | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -13 | 23 |
| 14 | Rotor-2 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -20 | 14 |
| 15 | Arsenal Tula II | 22 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -25 | 14 |
| 16 | Kvant | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | -42 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Volna Nizhegorodskaya win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.