· Analysis updated 20:54 UTC
Völsungur vs HK Kopavogur Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Völsungur and 2.53 for HK Kopavogur, a combined total of 4.40. That distribution gives HK Kopavogur the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
HK Kopavogur win
52.4% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 2.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
HK Kopavogur away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HK Kopavogur to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 29% / 19% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Völsungur and 2.53 for HK Kopavogur, a combined 4.40 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 81% and both teams to score at 78%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.3%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–36.2%
- 1–15.8%
- 2–35.8%
Recent form
Völsungur
HK Kopavogur
- 2026-09-13T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Fylkir · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Fylkir · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fylkir · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grindavik · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Throttur Reykjavik · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · Völsungur 3-2 HK Kopavogur (1. Deild)
- 2026-05-27T18:00:00.000Z · Völsungur 0-1 HK Kopavogur (1. Deild)
- 2025-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Völsungur 0-4 HK Kopavogur (1. Deild)
- 2025-07-05T16:00:00.000Z · Völsungur 1-3 HK Kopavogur (1. Deild)
1. Deild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Afturelding | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 45 |
| 2 | Throttur Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 43 |
| 3 | Fylkir | 22 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 40 |
| 4 | HK Kopavogur | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 38 |
| 5 | Njardvik | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 6 | Leiknir R. | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 28 |
| 7 | IR Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Grotta | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -7 | 27 |
| 9 | Vestri | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -13 | 27 |
| 10 | Völsungur | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -12 | 26 |
| 11 | Grindavik | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | -10 | 25 |
| 12 | Ægir | 22 | 2 | 3 | 17 | -44 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is HK Kopavogur win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.