· Analysis updated 09:04 UTC
Voorde Appelterre vs Sparta Petegem Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Voorde Appelterre and 0.89 for Sparta Petegem, a combined total of 2.04. That distribution gives Voorde Appelterre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Voorde Appelterre home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Petegem away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Voorde Appelterre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 30% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Voorde Appelterre and 0.89 for Sparta Petegem, a combined 2.04 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–013.0%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–08.6%
Recent form
Voorde Appelterre
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Oudenaarde · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Torhout · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Diksmuide · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs VW Hamme · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs RFC Wetteren · 2-0 (W)
Sparta Petegem
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs RFC Wetteren · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs HO Kalken · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Torhout · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Londerzeel · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs KRC Gent · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - VFV A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eendracht Aalst | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Diksmuide | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Voorde Appelterre | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Mechelen II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Oostkamp | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | FC Lebbeke | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Sparta Petegem | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Ninove | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Torhout | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | VW Hamme | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Londerzeel | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Zulte Waregem II | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | RFC Wetteren | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | KRC Gent | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | HO Kalken | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Oudenaarde | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.