Vora Stadium · Analysis updated 16:48 UTC
Vora vs Tirana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Vora and 1.93 for Tirana, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Tirana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Tirana win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vora home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Tirana away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tirana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 25% / 22% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Vora and 1.93 for Tirana, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–18.0%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.3%
Recent form
Vora
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs AF Elbasani · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Korabi Peshkopi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skenderbeu Korce · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Teuta Durrës · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tirana · 0-4 (L)
Tirana
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Partizani · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AF Elbasani · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Skenderbeu Korce · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vora · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Teuta Durrës · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Tirana | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 5 | AF Elbasani | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Laci | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 7 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | Vora | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 9 | Partizani | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 10 | Skenderbeu Korce | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tirana win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.