Vorsfelde vs Bersenbrück Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Vorsfelde and 1.78 for Bersenbrück, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Bersenbrück the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

61.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vorsfelde home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bersenbrück away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bersenbrück to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 38% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Vorsfelde and 1.78 for Bersenbrück, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Vorsfelde win38%

Draw22%

Bersenbrück win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–19.1%
1–28.1%
2–18.0%
2–27.1%
0–15.2%

Recent form

Vorsfelde

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lüneburger SK Hansa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Wilhelmshaven · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwarz-Weiß Rehden · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs BW Lohne · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Hildesheim · 0-2 (L)

Bersenbrück

2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordhorn · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Germania Egestorf · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hemmingen · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lüneburger SK Hansa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Meppen II · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2025-05-11T13:00:00.000Z · Vorsfelde 2-1 Bersenbrück (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
2024-11-03T13:00:00.000Z · Vorsfelde 2-3 Bersenbrück (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
2024-02-18T13:00:00.000Z · Vorsfelde 2-0 Bersenbrück (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
2023-08-27T13:00:00.000Z · Vorsfelde 1-4 Bersenbrück (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)

Oberliga - Niedersachsen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Heeslinger SC	10	6	3	1	17	21
2	Eintracht Braunschw. II	10	6	2	2	15	20
3	Wilhelmshaven	9	6	2	1	13	20
4	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	9	6	2	1	10	20
5	Borussia Hildesheim	9	6	1	2	7	19
6	Spelle-Venhaus	9	5	3	1	7	18
7	BW Lohne	9	4	2	3	4	14
8	Bersenbrück	9	4	1	4	2	13
9	Meppen II	10	4	1	5	-3	13
10	Nordhorn	10	3	2	5	-13	11
11	Verden 04	10	2	4	4	-2	10
12	Germania Egestorf	9	2	2	5	-9	8
13	Hemmingen	9	2	1	6	-15	7
14	Lüneburger SK Hansa	9	0	6	3	-3	6
15	Vorsfelde	10	1	2	7	-17	5
16	Drochtersen/Assel II	9	1	0	8	-13	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.