· Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
Vorsfelde vs Spelle-Venhaus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Vorsfelde and 2.10 for Spelle-Venhaus, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Spelle-Venhaus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Spelle-Venhaus win
71.1% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 2.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vorsfelde home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spelle-Venhaus away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spelle-Venhaus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 10% / 19% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for Vorsfelde and 2.10 for Spelle-Venhaus, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
29%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–214.1%
- 0–113.4%
- 0–39.9%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.7%
Recent form
Vorsfelde
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lüneburger SK Hansa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Wilhelmshaven · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwarz-Weiß Rehden · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs BW Lohne · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Hildesheim · 0-2 (L)
Spelle-Venhaus
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Germania Egestorf · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Meppen II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschw. II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Heeslinger SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lüneburger SK Hansa · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Niedersachsen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heeslinger SC | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 21 |
| 2 | Eintracht Braunschw. II | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 |
| 3 | Wilhelmshaven | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | Schwarz-Weiß Rehden | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | Borussia Hildesheim | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | Spelle-Venhaus | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | BW Lohne | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Bersenbrück | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Meppen II | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | Nordhorn | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 11 |
| 11 | Verden 04 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Germania Egestorf | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 13 | Hemmingen | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 7 |
| 14 | Lüneburger SK Hansa | 9 | 0 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Vorsfelde | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 5 |
| 16 | Drochtersen/Assel II | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spelle-Venhaus win, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.