Vortuna Bad Leonfelden vs St. Martin i.M. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.76 expected goals for Vortuna Bad Leonfelden and 1.64 for St. Martin i.M., a combined total of 4.40. That distribution gives Vortuna Bad Leonfelden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden win

61.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.76 – 1.64

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vortuna Bad Leonfelden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 17% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.76 goals for Vortuna Bad Leonfelden and 1.64 for St. Martin i.M., a combined 4.40 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 81% and both teams to score at 75%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Match result (1X2)

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden win61%

Draw17%

St. Martin i.M. win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals81%

Over 3.5 goals64%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

2–17.7%
3–17.1%
2–26.3%
3–25.8%
1–15.6%

Recent form

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

2026-06-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Weißkirchen / Allhaming · 3-1 (W)
2026-06-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Vöcklamarkt · 5-1 (W)
2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bad Ischl · 7-0 (W)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pregarten · 4-0 (W)
2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Oedt · 3-1 (W)

St. Martin i.M.

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Landesliga - Oberosterreich table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SK Vorwarts Steyr	29	18	5	6	32	59
2	Vortuna Bad Leonfelden	28	17	3	8	20	54
3	Bad Schallerbach	29	15	5	9	20	50
4	Union Perg	28	13	10	5	15	49
5	Weißkirchen / Allhaming	27	13	6	8	11	45
6	Friedburg / Pöndorf	27	12	8	7	15	44
7	Union Edelweiß	29	12	8	9	3	44
8	Mondsee	29	12	6	11	6	42
9	Ostermiething	28	12	4	12	1	40
10	Union Vöcklamarkt	28	11	6	11	-1	39
11	St. Martin i.M.	28	10	8	10	1	38
12	Oedt	25	9	5	11	5	32
13	Bad Ischl	29	9	3	17	-34	30
14	Pregarten	28	5	6	17	-21	21
15	Gschwandt	28	5	5	18	-43	20
16	Grün Weiß Micheldorf	28	4	6	18	-30	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Vortuna Bad Leonfelden win, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.