VPS vs Gnistan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for VPS and 1.21 for Gnistan, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives VPS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.31 – 1.21

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

VPS home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gnistan away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VPS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for VPS and 1.21 for Gnistan, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

VPS win39%

Draw27%

Gnistan win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.8%
1–010.5%
0–19.7%
2–18.3%
0–08.0%

Recent form

VPS

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs KuPS · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gnistan · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs HJK Helsinki · 0-6 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Turku · 0-1 (L)

Gnistan

2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs HJK Helsinki · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Oulu · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Turku PS · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs HJK Helsinki · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Veikkausliiga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	22	12	7	3	15	43
2	Inter Turku	22	11	9	2	13	42
3	HJK Helsinki	22	11	4	7	9	37
4	Gnistan	22	10	6	6	7	36
5	AC Oulu	22	10	4	8	0	34
6	VPS	22	9	6	7	7	33
7	Lahti	22	9	5	8	7	32
8	Turku PS	22	8	7	7	5	31
9	Ilves	22	7	4	11	-3	25
10	SJK	22	4	7	11	-8	19
11	FF Jaro	22	3	6	13	-26	15
12	Mariehamn	22	3	5	14	-26	14
1	Inter Turku	28	14	10	4	14	52
2	HJK Helsinki	28	15	6	7	21	51
3	KuPS	28	14	9	5	17	51
4	Gnistan	28	11	9	8	3	42
5	AC Oulu	28	12	4	12	-2	40
6	VPS	28	11	6	11	-2	39
1	Lahti	27	11	6	10	9	39
2	Ilves	27	11	5	11	6	38
3	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32
4	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27
5	FF Jaro	27	4	9	14	-27	21
6	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.