VPS vs Inter Turku Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for VPS and 1.23 for Inter Turku, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Inter Turku the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Inter Turku win

46.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.77 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

VPS home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Inter Turku away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

VPS win23%

Draw30%

Inter Turku win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals59%

Over 2.5 goals32%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

0–116.6%
0–013.5%
1–112.8%
1–010.5%
0–210.2%

Recent form

VPS

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Turku · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Oulu · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lahti · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilves · 1-0 (W)

Inter Turku

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gnistan · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Oulu · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs VPS · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs HJK Helsinki · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · VPS 0-1 Inter Turku (Veikkausliiga)
2026-08-02T12:00:00.000Z · VPS 0-1 Inter Turku (Veikkausliiga)
2026-06-30T15:00:00.000Z · VPS 2-3 Inter Turku (Suomen Cup)
2026-04-04T10:00:00.000Z · VPS 0-0 Inter Turku (Veikkausliiga)
2025-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · VPS 1-2 Inter Turku (Veikkausliiga)
2025-04-19T12:00:00.000Z · VPS 0-2 Inter Turku (Veikkausliiga)
2024-06-28T15:00:00.000Z · VPS 1-3 Inter Turku (Veikkausliiga)
2024-05-27T15:00:00.000Z · VPS 3-1 Inter Turku (Veikkausliiga)
2023-09-29T15:00:00.000Z · VPS 1-1 Inter Turku (Veikkausliiga)
2023-07-12T15:00:00.000Z · VPS 2-0 Inter Turku (Veikkausliiga)

Veikkausliiga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	22	12	7	3	15	43
2	Inter Turku	22	11	9	2	13	42
3	HJK Helsinki	22	11	4	7	9	37
4	Gnistan	22	10	6	6	7	36
5	AC Oulu	22	10	4	8	0	34
6	VPS	22	9	6	7	7	33
7	Lahti	22	9	5	8	7	32
8	Turku PS	22	8	7	7	5	31
9	Ilves	22	7	4	11	-3	25
10	SJK	22	4	7	11	-8	19
11	FF Jaro	22	3	6	13	-26	15
12	Mariehamn	22	3	5	14	-26	14
1	Inter Turku	28	14	10	4	14	52
2	HJK Helsinki	28	15	6	7	21	51
3	KuPS	27	13	9	5	15	48
4	Gnistan	28	11	9	8	3	42
5	AC Oulu	28	12	4	12	-2	40
6	VPS	27	11	6	10	0	39
1	Lahti	27	11	6	10	9	39
2	Ilves	27	11	5	11	6	38
3	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32
4	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27
5	FF Jaro	27	4	9	14	-27	21
6	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Inter Turku win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.