· Analysis updated 08:00 UTC
Vranov nad Topľou vs Kežmarok Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for Vranov nad Topľou and 1.11 for Kežmarok, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Vranov nad Topľou the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vranov nad Topľou win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
1.97 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vranov nad Topľou home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vranov nad Topľou to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for Vranov nad Topľou and 1.11 for Kežmarok, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
Vranov nad Topľou
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kežmarok · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Snina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Medzev · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Raslavice · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Partizán Bardejov · 2-1 (W)
Kežmarok
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lokomotíva Košice | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | Spartak Medzev | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Raslavice | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Stará Ľubovňa | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | Lipany | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17 |
| 6 | Poprad | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Partizán Bardejov | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Spišská Nová Ves | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | MSK Tesla Stropkov | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Slávia TU Košice | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 11 | Snina | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Vranov nad Topľou | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 10 |
| 13 | Slovan Sabinov | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 6 |
| 14 | Kežmarok | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -21 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vranov nad Topľou win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.