· Analysis updated 18:14 UTC
Vranov nad Topľou vs MSK Tesla Stropkov Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Vranov nad Topľou and 1.84 for MSK Tesla Stropkov, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives MSK Tesla Stropkov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MSK Tesla Stropkov win
51.7% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vranov nad Topľou home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
MSK Tesla Stropkov away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MSK Tesla Stropkov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 26% / 23% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Vranov nad Topľou and 1.84 for MSK Tesla Stropkov, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–27.9%
- 2–16.5%
Recent form
Vranov nad Topľou
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Sabinov · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Banská Bystrica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Partizán Bardejov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotíva Košice · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kežmarok · 2-0 (W)
MSK Tesla Stropkov
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Poprad · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Lipany · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Partizán Bardejov · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spišská Nová Ves · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stará Ľubovňa · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lokomotíva Košice | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Spartak Medzev | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Raslavice | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 4 | Stará Ľubovňa | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Partizán Bardejov | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Spišská Nová Ves | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Lipany | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 18 |
| 8 | Poprad | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | MSK Tesla Stropkov | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Snina | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 | Slávia TU Košice | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Vranov nad Topľou | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 13 |
| 13 | Slovan Sabinov | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 14 | Kežmarok | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -26 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MSK Tesla Stropkov win, at 51.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.