· Analysis updated 21:55 UTC
Vranov nad Topľou vs Stará Ľubovňa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Vranov nad Topľou and 2.46 for Stará Ľubovňa, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives Stará Ľubovňa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Stará Ľubovňa win
67.4% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 2.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vranov nad Topľou home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stará Ľubovňa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 15% / 18% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Vranov nad Topľou and 2.46 for Stará Ľubovňa, a combined 3.54 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.7%
- 1–37.8%
- 1–17.7%
- 0–37.2%
Recent form
Vranov nad Topľou
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Sabinov · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Banská Bystrica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Partizán Bardejov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotíva Košice · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kežmarok · 2-0 (W)
Stará Ľubovňa
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Snina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Medzev · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Raslavice · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Poprad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lipany · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lokomotíva Košice | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 2 | Stará Ľubovňa | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 24 |
| 3 | Spartak Medzev | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Raslavice | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | Partizán Bardejov | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Spišská Nová Ves | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Lipany | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 18 |
| 8 | MSK Tesla Stropkov | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 9 | Poprad | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Slávia TU Košice | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Snina | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 12 | Vranov nad Topľou | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 13 |
| 13 | Slovan Sabinov | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 14 | Kežmarok | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -26 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stará Ľubovňa win, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.