Stadium Nove Mesto · Analysis updated 16:38 UTC
Vrchovina vs Hodonín Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Vrchovina and 2.30 for Hodonín, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives Hodonín the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Hodonín win
61.4% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 2.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vrchovina home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hodonín away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hodonín to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 19% / 19% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Vrchovina and 2.30 for Hodonín, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 1–18.3%
- 0–27.8%
- 1–37.3%
- 0–16.8%
Recent form
Vrchovina
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Unie Hlubina · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vsetín · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zbrojovka Brno II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hranice · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Slovácko II · 1-3 (L)
Hodonín
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Unie Hlubina · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Vsetín · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Zbrojovka Brno II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hranice · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Karviná II · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - MSFL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Líšeň II | 13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 29 |
| 2 | Uničov | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 29 |
| 3 | Zbrojovka Brno II | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Frýdek-Místek | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 5 | Hranice | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Sigma Olomouc II | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Slovácko II | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Unie Hlubina | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Uherský Brod | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 10 | Hodonín | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 17 |
| 11 | Vítkovice | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 12 | Zlín II | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 13 | Karviná II | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 14 |
| 14 | Vrchovina | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 14 |
| 15 | Havířov | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -9 | 11 |
| 16 | Blansko | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 11 |
| 17 | Vsetín | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -16 | 10 |
| 18 | Polanka nad Odrou | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hodonín win, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.