Vrchovina vs Karviná II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Vrchovina and 1.58 for Karviná II, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Vrchovina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.68 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vrchovina home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vrchovina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 23% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Vrchovina and 1.58 for Karviná II, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Vrchovina win41%

Draw23%

Karviná II win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.2%
2–18.6%
1–28.1%
2–26.7%
1–06.5%

Recent form

Vrchovina

2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Unie Hlubina · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vsetín · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zbrojovka Brno II · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hranice · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Slovácko II · 1-3 (L)

Karviná II

2026-10-04T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Zlín II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Líšeň II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Blansko · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-13T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Slovácko II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Hodonín · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. liga - MSFL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Líšeň II	13	8	5	0	17	29
2	Uničov	13	9	2	2	13	29
3	Zbrojovka Brno II	13	8	3	2	10	27
4	Frýdek-Místek	13	7	3	3	7	24
5	Hranice	13	7	2	4	7	23
6	Sigma Olomouc II	13	7	1	5	6	22
7	Slovácko II	13	5	3	5	6	18
8	Unie Hlubina	13	5	3	5	2	18
9	Uherský Brod	13	5	3	5	0	18
10	Hodonín	13	5	2	6	3	17
11	Vítkovice	13	4	4	5	-2	16
12	Zlín II	13	4	3	6	-6	15
13	Karviná II	13	4	2	7	-4	14
14	Vrchovina	13	4	2	7	-15	14
15	Havířov	13	2	5	6	-9	11
16	Blansko	13	2	5	6	-11	11
17	Vsetín	13	3	1	9	-16	10
18	Polanka nad Odrou	13	2	3	8	-8	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.