Vreden vs ASC Dortmund Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Vreden and 2.14 for ASC Dortmund, a combined total of 4.76. That distribution gives Vreden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Vreden win

49.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.63 – 2.14

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vreden home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ASC Dortmund away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vreden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 19% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Vreden and 2.14 for ASC Dortmund, a combined 4.76 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Vreden win49%

Draw19%

ASC Dortmund win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals85%

Over 3.5 goals70%

Both teams to score82%

Correct score

2–26.7%
2–16.3%
3–25.9%
3–15.5%
1–25.1%

Recent form

Vreden

2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs TuS Hordel · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lippstadt 08 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Schermbeck · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Rheine · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sprockhovel · 4-4 (D)

ASC Dortmund

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Erkenschwick · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Schermbeck · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gievenbeck · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ennepetal · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs TuS Hordel · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Westfalen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gievenbeck	11	7	2	2	8	23
2	Vreden	11	7	2	2	7	23
3	Maaslingen	11	7	1	3	7	22
4	Eintracht Rheine	11	6	2	3	7	20
5	Lippstadt 08	12	6	2	4	2	20
6	ASC Dortmund	11	6	1	4	6	19
7	Sprockhovel	11	5	3	3	9	18
8	Arminia II	11	5	3	3	5	18
9	Erkenschwick	11	5	3	3	4	18
10	Preußen Münster II	11	4	3	4	2	15
11	Westfalia Kinderhaus	11	4	3	4	-3	15
12	Verl II	11	4	2	5	1	14
13	Hiltrup	11	4	1	6	-9	13
14	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	11	4	0	7	-7	12
15	TuS Hordel	11	2	5	4	-4	11
16	Victoria Clarholz	11	2	2	7	-4	8
17	Ennepetal	11	1	5	5	-12	8
18	Schermbeck	12	0	2	10	-19	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Vreden win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.