Vreden vs Erkenschwick Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for Vreden and 1.57 for Erkenschwick, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Vreden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Vreden win

47.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.96 – 1.57

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vreden home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Erkenschwick away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Vreden win47%

Draw22%

Erkenschwick win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

1–19.0%
2–18.9%
1–27.1%
2–26.9%
3–15.8%

Recent form

Vreden

2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs TuS Hordel · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lippstadt 08 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Schermbeck · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Rheine · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sprockhovel · 4-4 (D)

Erkenschwick

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ASC Dortmund · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hiltrup · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Verl II · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Arminia II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Clarholz · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-31T13:00:00.000Z · Vreden 3-0 Erkenschwick (Oberliga - Westfalen)
2025-12-13T14:00:00.000Z · Vreden 0-2 Erkenschwick (Oberliga - Westfalen)
2025-05-25T13:45:00.000Z · Vreden 0-3 Erkenschwick (Oberliga - Westfalen)
2024-12-01T13:30:00.000Z · Vreden 2-1 Erkenschwick (Oberliga - Westfalen)
2024-02-25T14:00:00.000Z · Vreden 1-2 Erkenschwick (Oberliga - Westfalen)
2023-08-27T13:15:00.000Z · Vreden 1-3 Erkenschwick (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gievenbeck	11	7	2	2	8	23
2	Vreden	11	7	2	2	7	23
3	Maaslingen	11	7	1	3	7	22
4	Eintracht Rheine	11	6	2	3	7	20
5	Lippstadt 08	12	6	2	4	2	20
6	ASC Dortmund	11	6	1	4	6	19
7	Sprockhovel	11	5	3	3	9	18
8	Arminia II	11	5	3	3	5	18
9	Erkenschwick	11	5	3	3	4	18
10	Preußen Münster II	11	4	3	4	2	15
11	Westfalia Kinderhaus	11	4	3	4	-3	15
12	Verl II	11	4	2	5	1	14
13	Hiltrup	11	4	1	6	-9	13
14	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	11	4	0	7	-7	12
15	TuS Hordel	11	2	5	4	-4	11
16	Victoria Clarholz	11	2	2	7	-4	8
17	Ennepetal	11	1	5	5	-12	8
18	Schermbeck	12	0	2	10	-19	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Vreden win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.