· Analysis updated 14:04 UTC
Vreden vs Erkenschwick Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Vreden and 1.80 for Erkenschwick, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Vreden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.8% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vreden home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Erkenschwick away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.5%
- 2–18.0%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.1%
Recent form
Vreden
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs TuS Hordel · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lippstadt 08 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Schermbeck · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Rheine · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sprockhovel · 4-4 (D)
Erkenschwick
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ASC Dortmund · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hiltrup · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Verl II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Arminia II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Clarholz · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-31T13:00:00.000Z · Vreden 3-0 Erkenschwick (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2025-12-13T14:00:00.000Z · Vreden 0-2 Erkenschwick (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2025-05-25T13:45:00.000Z · Vreden 0-3 Erkenschwick (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2024-12-01T13:30:00.000Z · Vreden 2-1 Erkenschwick (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2024-02-25T14:00:00.000Z · Vreden 1-2 Erkenschwick (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2023-08-27T13:15:00.000Z · Vreden 1-3 Erkenschwick (Oberliga - Westfalen)
Oberliga - Westfalen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gievenbeck | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Vreden | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 3 | Maaslingen | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Eintracht Rheine | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Lippstadt 08 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | ASC Dortmund | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 7 | Sprockhovel | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 18 |
| 8 | Arminia II | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Erkenschwick | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Preußen Münster II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Westfalia Kinderhaus | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Verl II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 13 | Hiltrup | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 14 | SpVgg Herne Horsthausen | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 15 | TuS Hordel | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | Victoria Clarholz | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 | Ennepetal | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Schermbeck | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.