· Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
VSK Århus vs Brabrand Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for VSK Århus and 1.03 for Brabrand, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives VSK Århus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
VSK Århus win
73.4% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VSK Århus home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brabrand away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VSK Århus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 15% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for VSK Århus and 1.03 for Brabrand, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 2–08.7%
- 3–18.1%
- 3–08.0%
- 1–16.5%
Recent form
VSK Århus
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Thisted FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nykobing FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Brabrand · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Skive · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Middelfart · 1-1 (D)
Brabrand
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fremad Amager · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs VSK Århus · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nykobing FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Thisted FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Viborg · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nykobing FC | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | Roskilde | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | VSK Århus | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Naestved | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Middelfart | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | B 93 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Skive | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 8 | Fremad Amager | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 17 |
| 9 | Brabrand | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 10 | HIK | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 12 |
| 11 | Thisted FC | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 6 |
| 12 | FA 2000 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is VSK Århus win, at 73.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.