· Analysis updated 22:30 UTC
VSK Århus vs Thisted FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for VSK Århus and 0.80 for Thisted FC, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives VSK Århus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
VSK Århus win
66.5% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VSK Århus home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thisted FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VSK Århus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 20% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for VSK Århus and 0.80 for Thisted FC, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.1%
- 1–011.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.5%
- 3–08.3%
Recent form
VSK Århus
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Naestved · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Thisted FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nykobing FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Brabrand · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Skive · 1-0 (W)
Thisted FC
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Brabrand · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Naestved · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nykobing FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sonderjyske · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fremad Amager · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nykobing FC | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | Roskilde | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | VSK Århus | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 4 | Naestved | 13 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 20 |
| 5 | Middelfart | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | B 93 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Skive | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 8 | Fremad Amager | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -6 | 17 |
| 9 | Brabrand | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 10 | HIK | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 15 |
| 11 | Thisted FC | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 6 |
| 12 | FA 2000 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -16 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is VSK Århus win, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.