Stadion Gradski vrt · Analysis updated 16:31 UTC
Vukovar vs Dubrava Zagreb Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Vukovar and 1.28 for Dubrava Zagreb, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Vukovar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vukovar home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dubrava Zagreb away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vukovar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Vukovar and 1.28 for Dubrava Zagreb, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.4%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Vukovar
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Segesta Sisak · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Radnički Dalj · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Ždralovi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-22T16:15:00.000Z · A vs HNK Hajduk Split · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Varazdin · 0-2 (L)
Dubrava Zagreb
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Orijent 1919 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Karlovac 1919 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Hrvace · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Opatija · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jadran LP | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Croatia Zmijavci | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | HNK Cibalia | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Segesta Sisak | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Mladost Ždralovi | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Sesvete | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Dugopolje | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Dubrava Zagreb | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Karlovac 1919 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Orijent 1919 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Vukovar | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Opatija | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Hrvace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Kustosija | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.