Vukovar vs HNK Cibalia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Vukovar and 1.83 for HNK Cibalia, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives HNK Cibalia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

HNK Cibalia win

48.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vukovar home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
HNK Cibalia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Vukovar win29%

Draw23%

HNK Cibalia win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.3%
1–29.4%
0–17.6%
0–27.0%
2–17.0%

Recent form

Vukovar

2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Segesta Sisak · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Radnički Dalj · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-21T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Ždralovi · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-22T16:15:00.000Z · A vs HNK Hajduk Split · 3-6 (L)
2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Varazdin · 0-2 (L)

HNK Cibalia

2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Dugopolje · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Sesvete · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kustosija · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vukovar · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Vukovar · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · Vukovar 1-0 HNK Cibalia (Cup)
2026-09-05T13:45:00.000Z · Vukovar 1-1 HNK Cibalia (First NL)
2025-09-10T14:30:00.000Z · Vukovar 0-1 HNK Cibalia (Cup)
2025-05-03T11:15:00.000Z · Vukovar 4-2 HNK Cibalia (First NL)
2024-11-16T12:50:00.000Z · Vukovar 0-1 HNK Cibalia (First NL)
2024-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · Vukovar 2-0 HNK Cibalia (First NL)
2024-06-01T15:30:00.000Z · Vukovar 5-1 HNK Cibalia (First NL)
2023-11-17T12:30:00.000Z · Vukovar 1-0 HNK Cibalia (First NL)
2023-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · Vukovar 3-1 HNK Cibalia (First NL)
2023-05-20T15:30:00.000Z · Vukovar 1-1 HNK Cibalia (First NL)

First NL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Jadran LP	7	4	2	1	5	14
2	Croatia Zmijavci	7	4	1	2	5	13
3	HNK Cibalia	7	3	4	0	3	13
4	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	7	4	1	2	2	13
5	Segesta Sisak	7	3	2	2	1	11
6	Mladost Ždralovi	7	3	2	2	0	11
7	Sesvete	7	3	0	4	1	9
8	Dinamo Zagreb U21	7	3	0	4	0	9
9	Dugopolje	7	2	3	2	0	9
10	Dubrava Zagreb	7	2	2	3	-1	8
11	Karlovac 1919	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Orijent 1919	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Vukovar	7	2	2	3	-3	8
14	Opatija	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Hrvace	7	2	1	4	-5	7
16	Kustosija	7	1	3	3	-2	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is HNK Cibalia win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.