· Analysis updated 14:44 UTC
Vushtrria vs Drita Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Vushtrria and 4.50 for Drita, a combined total of 6.50. That distribution gives Drita the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 92% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 1–4 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Drita win
77.7% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 4.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vushtrria home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Drita away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Drita to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 12% / 11% / 78% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Vushtrria and 4.50 for Drita, a combined 6.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
22%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–45.1%
- 2–45.1%
- 1–54.6%
- 2–54.6%
- 1–34.6%
Recent form
Vushtrria
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Feronikeli · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Drenica Skënderaj · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Llapi · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Prishtina · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Drita · 0-1 (L)
Drita
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Malisheva · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bashkimi Kumanovo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dukagjini · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjilani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Feronikeli · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prishtina | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Malisheva | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 16 |
| 3 | Dukagjini | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Drita | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Gjilani | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Ballkani | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Drenica Skënderaj | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Feronikeli | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 9 | Llapi | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
| 10 | Vushtrria | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Drita win, at 77.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–4.
It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 92%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.