· Analysis updated 17:39 UTC
Vushtrria vs Gjilani Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Vushtrria and 1.95 for Gjilani, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Gjilani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gjilani win
67.3% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vushtrria home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gjilani away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gjilani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 12% / 21% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Vushtrria and 1.95 for Gjilani, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.0%
- 0–213.7%
- 1–19.6%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–38.9%
Recent form
Vushtrria
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Malisheva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dukagjini · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjilani · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Feronikeli · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Drenica Skënderaj · 0-3 (L)
Gjilani
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukagjini · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Llapi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Feronikeli · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Metalul Buzău · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prishtina e Re · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malisheva | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 2 | Prishtina | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Gjilani | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Drita | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Dukagjini | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Ballkani | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Drenica Skënderaj | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Feronikeli | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 9 | Llapi | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 4 |
| 10 | Vushtrria | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gjilani win, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.