· Analysis updated 12:56 UTC
Vushtrria vs Llapi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Vushtrria and 1.47 for Llapi, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Llapi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.1% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vushtrria home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Llapi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Llapi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 34% / 25% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for Vushtrria and 1.47 for Llapi, a combined 2.79 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.0%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Vushtrria
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Malisheva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dukagjini · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjilani · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Feronikeli · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Drenica Skënderaj · 0-3 (L)
Llapi
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Drenica Skënderaj · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Malisheva · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vushtrria · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukagjini · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Prishtina · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malisheva | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Prishtina | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Gjilani | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Drita | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Dukagjini | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Ballkani | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Drenica Skënderaj | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Feronikeli | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 9 | Llapi | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 5 |
| 10 | Vushtrria | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.