· Analysis updated 13:51 UTC
Vvsb vs EVV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Vvsb and 1.37 for EVV, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Vvsb the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.4% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vvsb home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
EVV away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vvsb to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Vvsb and 1.37 for EVV, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.0%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–06.7%
Recent form
Vvsb
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Blauw Geel · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior Maassluis · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Roosendaal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rijnvogels · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Achilles Veen · 2-1 (W)
EVV
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Lisse · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Halsteren · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Groene Ster · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs UDI '19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Poortugaal · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.