· Analysis updated 14:45 UTC
VVV Venlo vs Fortuna Köln Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 2.35 for Fortuna Köln, a combined total of 4.38. That distribution gives Fortuna Köln the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fortuna Köln win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 2.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VVV Venlo home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fortuna Köln away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortuna Köln to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 34% / 20% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for VVV Venlo and 2.35 for Fortuna Köln, a combined 4.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.1%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–16.1%
- 1–16.0%
- 2–35.6%
Recent form
VVV Venlo
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong Ajax · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Roda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Volendam · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong Utrecht · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC OSS · 3-1 (W)
Fortuna Köln
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Havelse · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Wehen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hoffenheim II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Düsseldorf · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Verl · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · VVV Venlo 0-1 Fortuna Köln (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fortuna Köln win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.