Seacon - De Koel · Referee M. van den Kerkhof · Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
VVV Venlo vs Heracles Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.79 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.74. That distribution gives VVV Venlo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VVV Venlo home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heracles away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VVV Venlo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 21% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for VVV Venlo and 1.79 for Heracles, a combined 3.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.3%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.2%
Recent form
VVV Venlo
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong Ajax · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Roda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Volendam · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong Utrecht · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC OSS · 3-1 (W)
Heracles
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitesse · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Almere City FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong AZ · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs De Graafschap · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T10:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Eindhoven · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eerste Divisie table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.