VW Hamme vs FC Lebbeke Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for VW Hamme and 2.35 for FC Lebbeke, a combined total of 4.32. That distribution gives FC Lebbeke the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Lebbeke win

47.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.98 – 2.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

VW Hamme home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Lebbeke away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Lebbeke to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 33% / 20% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for VW Hamme and 2.35 for FC Lebbeke, a combined 4.32 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

VW Hamme win33%

Draw20%

FC Lebbeke win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals81%

Over 3.5 goals63%

Both teams to score78%

Correct score

1–27.2%
2–27.1%
1–16.1%
2–16.1%
1–35.7%

Recent form

VW Hamme

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Voorde Appelterre · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem II · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Torhout · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs RFC Wetteren · 3-3 (D)
2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandel United · 1-1 (D)

FC Lebbeke

2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs HO Kalken · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Eendracht Aalst · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Diksmuide · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mechelen II · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Oostkamp · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-02-07T19:00:00.000Z · VW Hamme 2-0 FC Lebbeke (Second Amateur Division - VFV A)
2025-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · VW Hamme 0-1 FC Lebbeke (Second Amateur Division - VFV A)
2022-03-19T19:00:00.000Z · VW Hamme 1-1 FC Lebbeke (Third Amateur Division - VFV A)
2021-11-07T13:30:00.000Z · VW Hamme 1-1 FC Lebbeke (Third Amateur Division - VFV A)

Second Amateur Division - VFV A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eendracht Aalst	6	5	1	0	8	16
2	Diksmuide	6	4	1	1	4	13
3	Oostkamp	6	3	2	1	4	11
4	Mechelen II	6	3	1	2	3	10
5	Voorde Appelterre	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Zulte Waregem II	6	2	2	2	4	8
7	Sparta Petegem	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	Torhout	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	RFC Wetteren	6	2	2	2	-3	8
10	VW Hamme	6	2	2	2	-4	8
11	FC Lebbeke	6	2	1	3	1	7
12	Ninove	6	2	1	3	-5	7
13	Londerzeel	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	KRC Gent	6	1	2	3	-1	5
15	Oudenaarde	6	1	2	3	-4	5
16	HO Kalken	6	0	1	5	-8	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Lebbeke win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.