Mandemakers Stadion · Referee D. Higler · Analysis updated 15:51 UTC
Waalwijk vs NAC Breda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.83 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives NAC Breda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.7% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Waalwijk home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
NAC Breda away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NAC Breda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 36% / 22% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Waalwijk and 1.83 for NAC Breda, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.4%
Recent form
Waalwijk
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs MVV · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong Ajax · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NAC Breda · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong PSV U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Helmond Sport · 1-1 (D)
NAC Breda
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs MVV · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vitesse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Eindhoven · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · A vs De Graafschap · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong Utrecht · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eerste Divisie table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.