· Analysis updated 04:11 UTC
Waalwijk vs Patro Eisden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.15 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Waalwijk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Waalwijk win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Waalwijk home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Patro Eisden away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Waalwijk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Waalwijk and 1.15 for Patro Eisden, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–07.9%
Recent form
Waalwijk
- 2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · H vs FC Volendam · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heracles · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Emmen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Roda · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs MVV · 6-1 (W)
Patro Eisden
- 2026-10-25T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Liège · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs KVC Westerlo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KRC Genk II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Roeselare Daisel · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Dender · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Waalwijk win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.