Wacker Arena · Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
Wacker Burghausen vs SpVgg Unterhaching Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Wacker Burghausen and 1.60 for SpVgg Unterhaching, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Wacker Burghausen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wacker Burghausen home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SpVgg Unterhaching away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wacker Burghausen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 23% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Wacker Burghausen and 1.60 for SpVgg Unterhaching, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
Wacker Burghausen
- 2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Buchbach · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Eltersdorf · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Greuther Fürth II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eichstätt · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:45:00.000Z · H vs TSV 1860 München · 3-1 (W)
SpVgg Unterhaching
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ansbach · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilzing · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Landsberg · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Schweinfurt 05 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Bayern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Memmingen | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 33 |
| 2 | Buchbach | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 29 |
| 3 | SpVgg Unterhaching | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | TSV 1860 München | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Augsburg II | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 24 |
| 6 | Illertissen | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | Bayreuth | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 22 |
| 8 | Vilzing | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 9 | Eichstätt | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | Wacker Burghausen | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 20 |
| 11 | Nürnberg II | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 20 |
| 12 | Bayern München II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 13 | Eltersdorf | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 | Schwaben Augsburg | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Schweinfurt 05 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 16 | Greuther Fürth II | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 13 |
| 17 | Ansbach | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -17 | 12 |
| 18 | Aubstadt | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 19 | Landsberg | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -16 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.