· Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
Wacker Innsbruck vs BSG Chemie Leipzig Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Wacker Innsbruck and 1.14 for BSG Chemie Leipzig, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Wacker Innsbruck the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wacker Innsbruck win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wacker Innsbruck home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BSG Chemie Leipzig away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wacker Innsbruck to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Wacker Innsbruck and 1.14 for BSG Chemie Leipzig, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Wacker Innsbruck
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Voitsberg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC BW Linz · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Floridsdorfer AC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SKN ST. Polten · 1-0 (W)
BSG Chemie Leipzig
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tasmania Berlin · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs FSV Zwickau · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Altglienicke · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Magdeburg II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wacker Innsbruck win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.