Stadion Tivoli NEU · Referee M. Greinecker · Analysis updated 13:23 UTC
Wacker Innsbruck vs Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Wacker Innsbruck and 1.10 for Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Wacker Innsbruck the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wacker Innsbruck win
52.3% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wacker Innsbruck home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wacker Innsbruck to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Wacker Innsbruck and 1.10 for Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Wacker Innsbruck
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Voitsberg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC BW Linz · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Floridsdorfer AC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SKN ST. Polten · 1-0 (W)
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Vienna (Am) · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Sturm Graz II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Voitsberg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Kapfenberg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-31T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Wacker Innsbruck · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC BW Linz | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 2 | First Vienna | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Wacker Innsbruck | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Floridsdorfer AC | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Austria Salzburg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | SKU Amstetten | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Liefering | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Admira Wacker | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | SKN ST. Polten | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Voitsberg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Sturm Graz II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | WSPG Wels | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Rapid Wien II | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
| 16 | SV Kapfenberg | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wacker Innsbruck win, at 52.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.