Petrosport Stadium · Analysis updated 08:52 UTC
Wadi Degla vs Asyut Petrol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Wadi Degla and 0.73 for Asyut Petrol, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Wadi Degla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
75.9% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wadi Degla home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wadi Degla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 32% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Wadi Degla and 0.73 for Asyut Petrol, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 28% and both teams to score at 35%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.5%
- 0–015.8%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–09.8%
Recent form
Wadi Degla
- 2026-10-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs National Bank of Egypt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrojet · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ittihad · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs El Mokawloon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Future FC · 1-2 (L)
Asyut Petrol
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Future FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Ittihad | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | National Bank of Egypt | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | El Mokawloon | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Petrojet | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Masr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | AL Masry | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Smouha SC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | El Geish | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Wadi Degla | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Enppi | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 18 | Abu Qair Semad | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 19 | El Gouna FC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 75.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.