Carl-Benz Stadion · Referee Fabienne Michel, Germany · Analysis updated 04:36 UTC
Waldhof Mannheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Waldhof Mannheim and 1.11 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Waldhof Mannheim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Waldhof Mannheim win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Waldhof Mannheim home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fortuna Düsseldorf away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Waldhof Mannheim to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Waldhof Mannheim and 1.11 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Waldhof Mannheim
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger Kickers · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Elversberg · 2-1 (W)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Saarbrücken · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Preußen Münster · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Verl · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alemannia Aachen · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · Waldhof Mannheim 2-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf (3. Liga)
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | Alemannia Aachen | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Waldhof Mannheim | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Hoffenheim II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Hansa Rostock | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | SV Wehen | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 11 | Preußen Münster | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 12 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 13 | SV Meppen | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 | Stuttgart II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 15 | Verl | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 12 |
| 17 | Würzburger Kickers | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 19 | Fortuna Köln | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 20 | Havelse | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Waldhof Mannheim win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.