· Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Waldhof Mannheim vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Waldhof Mannheim and 3.25 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 4.93. That distribution gives FSV Mainz 05 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FSV Mainz 05 win
68.2% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 3.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Waldhof Mannheim home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FSV Mainz 05 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FSV Mainz 05 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 17% / 15% / 68% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Waldhof Mannheim and 3.25 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined 4.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
32%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.0%
- 1–26.4%
- 2–35.8%
- 1–45.7%
- 2–25.4%
Recent form
Waldhof Mannheim
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Elversberg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Preußen Münster · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Wehen · 1-0 (W)
FSV Mainz 05
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FSV Mainz 05 win, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.