Rodney Parade · Referee Joonas Jaanovits · Analysis updated 19:27 UTC
Wales U21 vs Denmark U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Wales U21 and 2.80 for Denmark U21, a combined total of 3.67. That distribution gives Denmark U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Denmark U21 win
77.2% probability
Expected goals
0.87 – 2.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wales U21 home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Denmark U21 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Denmark U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 9% / 14% / 77% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.87 goals for Wales U21 and 2.80 for Denmark U21, a combined 3.67 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.0%
- 0–39.3%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Wales U21
- 2026-10-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria U21 · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgium U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Denmark U21 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-27T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Belarus U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-11-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Belarus U21 · 0-3 (L)
Denmark U21
- 2026-10-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Belgium U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-28T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Belarus U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Wales U21 · 4-0 (W)
- 2025-11-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Belarus U21 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Denmark U21 win, at 77.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.